The Denver Nuggets begin their season Wednesday against fellow Western Conference foe Los Angeles Clippers. After the heartbreaking end to last year, falling to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the final game of the regular season in a win-or-go-home affair, the Nuggets will look to get off to a fast start this season against the Clippers. Although Denver is the better team on paper, they know better than anyone how important it is not to take their opponents lightly. Last season, Denver lost a multitude of games to bottom-feeding teams in the league, something that came back to bite them in the end. We will see if Denver has learned its lesson tonight.
Lineups:
Nuggets
Starters
PG: Jamal Murray
SG: Gary Harris
SF: Will Barton
PF: Paul Millsap
C: Nikola Jokic
Bench Rotation: Trey Lyles, Monte Morris, Mason Plumlee, Torrey Craig
Clippers
Starters
PG: Patrick Beverley
SG: Avery Bradley
SF: Tobias Harris
PF: Danilo Gallinari
C: Marcin Gortat
Bench Rotation: Lou Williams, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Montrezl Harrell, Milos Teodosic, Boban Marjanovic
Keys for Denver:
Starters play with energy
The preseason was a bit up and down for the Denver starters. After looking pretty good in the first game against the Lakers, the starters looked very sluggish in their next couple games. However, they did look better in their final two preseason games, moving the ball much more smoothly and running their offense with purpose. Jokic in particular has to step up and be aggressive. In each of the last two seasons he has started out very slow, but he needs to realize that he is the best player on the Nuggets and is a top 20 player in the NBA. When Jokic is engaged and aggressive, he is impossible to guard. He is one of the best shooting bigs in the league and has an array of moves to use in the post, using his immense size to his advantage. Try to double team him? Jokic is the best passing center in the league and a top 5 passer among all players in the NBA, using his extremely high IQ to see plays before they happen and pass teammates into open spots. If Jokic plays with energy, it feeds off onto the rest of the team and makes them so dangerous on offense.
Bench continues their strong play
One of the things that stood out from the Nuggets this preseason was the play of their bench. Led by Trey Lyles, who came into training camp in great shape, they were attacking on both ends and playing smart, sound basketball. Head coach Mike Malone has said that he wants to stick to a 9-man rotation throughout the regular season, leaving just four spots open off the bench. He has come out and said that Trey Lyles, Mason Plumlee, and Monte Morris are locked into minutes off the bench to begin the season, with the final spot being competed for by Torrey Craig, Malik Beasley, and Juancho Hernangomez. At the moment, it would appear as though Torrey Craig has the inside track over the other two, but the strong play of Beasley and Hernangomez over the preseason could force changes depending on how he plays. As I said before, Trey Lyles is the leader of this bench unit, using his size and athleticism to compete on both ends of the floor. He has a deft shooting touch, and is one of the best players on the team at using a pump fake and then attacking the rim. Monte Morris, who is manning the back up point guard spot while Isaiah Thomas remains out with a hip injury, has played particularly well, limiting his turnovers and acting as a floor general for the bench unit. Mason Plumlee will look to use his athleticism and rebounding to hold down the center spot while Jokic is getting some rest and Torrey Craig will continue to use his defense to lock up opposing players at the wing spot and hit open 3s on offense.
Can the defense step up?
Everyone knows how good the Nuggets are on offense. Finishing with top 6 offenses in each of the last two seasons, they have no issues scoring the ball. The issue has always been their defense, which is the primary reason they have been unable to reach the playoffs the last two years. While it is tough to build an elite defense around Jokic, one of the least athletic centers in the NBA, there are ways for them to reach a league average defense, which would just about guarantee them a playoff spot in the always tough Western Conference. In their final preseason game against the Chicago Bulls, the Nuggets stepped up their defensive aggressiveness, with the backcourt of Jamal Murray and Gary Harris forcing turnovers at a very high rate. Although it was against one of the worst teams in the league, it did show promise. Another positive from the preseason was that the Nuggets finished with a top 10 defensive rating. This doesn’t mean a whole lot considering preseason is a time for experimenting with lineups, but again it showed some hope.
Keys for Los Angeles
Play with physicality
There is no doubt that Denver is the more talented team. The Clippers will not win if they allow Denver to do what they want on offense and try to outscore them. Last season, Denver struggled on the road, particularly in the beginning of the season, lacking the mental toughness to get the job done consistently away from home. The Clippers need to press up against the Nuggets’ players and make them feel uncomfortable on offense. This will create fastbreak opportunities for easy points. If they can get the Denver offense out of rhythm, they have a chance to steal one at home.
Contain Denver’s backcourt players
Denver features one of the most dynamic and up-and-coming starting backcourts in the NBA. With the combo of Jamal Murray (21 years old) and Gary Harris (24 years old), Denver is set up with their backcourt of the future. Jamal Murray, while listed at point guard, is a very adept scorer who’s primary job is not to facilitate and pass the ball like a traditional point guard. Since Denver has Jokic, one of the best passers in the league, playing as a sort of point-center, Murray is free to focus on his strength, which is scoring and shooting the ball. Gary Harris is very similar to Murray in that he is very good shooter and scores the ball at a high rate. Where they differ, however, is that Murray much better with the ball in his hands and has a more advanced handle, while Harris does a lot of his damage of catch and shoot 3s and straight drives to the rim, using his superior athleticism and strength to finish through the defense. The job of containing these two players will be up to the Clippers’ guards, specifically the starting pair of Pat Beverley and Avery Bradley. Both have been primarily known for defense throughout their careers, with Beverley being more in-your-face and fiery, while Bradley is more quiet and low key. They are both great at playing physical and creating turnovers, things they must do tonight if they hope to win.
Prediction
Denver wins 111-102
In the end, expect Denver to come in and play like the superior team that they are. After playing up and down to their competition last season, the coaching staff will no doubt be stressing to them to play with energy and aggressiveness, to which I think they will respond.
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